Right now, the PGA Tour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get. And the same can be said for the upcoming tournament, the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Over the last five weeks, we have seen four first-time winners, and yes, that is a very unusual pace. We’ve played eight total tournaments in 2022, and in 2021 a total of 25 tournaments were played before there were four first-time winners.
So looking at the past can only get us so far in predicting who wins each week and who wins this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando.
Favorites to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational
- Jon Rahm (+750)
- Rory McIlroy (+1000)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
- Viktor Hovland (+1800)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000)
- Sung-Jae Im (+2200)
- Will Zalatoris (+2500)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)
- Marc Leishman (+2800)
As is the case with any tournament that he enters, Jon Rahm is the favorite. He doesn’t have a win in 2022, but the six-time PGA Tour winner has three top-10 finishes this year and has twice finished in the top-five.
It’s Rahm’s first-ever visit to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but Rory McIlroy is making his eighth straight appearance. He won in 2018 and has top-10 finishes in 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Two weeks ago, McIlroy played his first and only tournament of 2022 and finished T10 at the Genesis Invitational.
Third on the board is Scottie Scheffler, one of those four first-time winners we’ve had recently. He won at Phoenix and then followed that up with T7 at Riviera. He played the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2020 and finished 15th.
Best Value Bets
In the vein of first-time winners, Will Zalatoris is striking the ball well, and most of the golfing world thinks he’s overdue for his first win. He finished T6 at The American Express and second at the Farmers Insurance Open, and most importantly, he is paying +2500.
Adam Scott is paying +3500, and along with that big potential payday, he brings solid play of late and a good history at Bay Hill. He played strong golf at the Genesis two weeks ago, shooting a 66 in the final round and finishing T4. At the Arnold Palmer, he has a pair of third-place finishes, with the first coming in 2004 and the second coming in 2014.
At +5000, take a look at Jason Kokrak. He finished 2021 strong with a win at the Houston Open. He had a T17 at the Sony Open in January and was undone by a tough final round at Riviera. Before the final 18, he was tied for 12th. Last year at the Arnold Palmer, he finished in eighth, which was his fourth top-10 finish at this event.
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