It’s hard to call any of the 154 players who will be at TPC Sawgrass this weekend for The Players Championship underdogs. A record-tying 113 of them are PGA Tour winners, and 10 of them have won this tournament before.
Often called golf’s “fifth major,” the qualifying standards ensure that this is the best field of the year. To get in, you need to win a major or other designated tournament, be ranked in the top 50 in the world, be in the top 10 in FedEx Cup points, or be a leading money winner.
And if that doesn’t fill out the 154-golfer field, the rest of the FedEx Cup list, up to place 125, will be used.
It’s a great field, a tough course, and there are a number of great value bets that might walk away as the champion.
Paul Casey (+4500)
Paul Casey just finished 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite a 2-over-par 74 on Sunday, and he finished in fifth place at Pebble Beach back in February. That followed an eighth-place finish at The American Express in January.
As the 19th-ranked player in the world, +4500 is good value for a hot Casey.
Danny Willett (+35000)
Danny Willett is on our radar because of the big number the oddsmakers have put next to his name. He doesn’t have a great history at Sawgrass with four missed cuts. But +35000 is way too high for a golfer who has a green jacket from Augusta.
Willett is coming off a 31st-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but in truth, he was much better than that. Without a final round 77, he would have finished in the top 20.
Ryan Moore (+27500)
In a field of overachieving golfers, Ryan Moore might be the clearest underdog of the bunch. His 2021 reads missed cut, missed cut, missed cut, tied for 26th. So yeah, Moore isn’t rolling into The Players Championship on a wave of great golf.
But the Stadium Course at Sawgrass is unique, knowledge of the course is key, and Moore has logged 46 competitive rounds at The Players. In the last two tournaments here in 2018 and 2019, Moore finished at -8 and -9, which included a top 20 finish and a round of 66, which is just three off the course record.
Is he going to win? It’s highly unlikely. But he’s at his best when he’s playing here, and that potential payoff is too good to resist.
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