The majority of the PGA Tour takes a breather this weekend after an extra-long five-day PLAYERS Championship was completed at Sawgrass over the weekend. For those in the field both last week and this, like betting favorite Justin Thomas, it’s just two off-days, then back at it at the Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida.
The field, however, isn’t completely bare. There are 20 of the top 50 golfers in the world teeing it up at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, taking advantage of one of the final tuneups before we head to Augusta, Georgia, in three weeks.
Favorites to Win the Valspar Championship
- Justin Thomas (+900)
- Viktor Hovland (+1100)
- Collin Morikawa (+1100)
- Dustin Johnson (+1400)
- Xander Schauffele (+1800)
- Paul Casey (+1800)
- Louis Oosthuizen (+1800)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)
- Shane Lowry (+2200)
- Sam Burns (+2200)
Looking at the favorite, Justin Thomas, some bettors might be scared off by his T33 at the PLAYERS last weekend. But already this season, he has five finishes T8 or better, and last year at the Valspar, he was T13. He’s playing solid golf, and he’s the best overall golfer in the field.
The player right behind Thomas on the favorites board might be the hottest player in the world, Norway’s Viktor Hovland. He’s ranked third in the world, he finished T9 at Sawgrass, he was T2 the week before that at the Arnold Palmer, and he was T4 at Riviera. That’s three straight top-10 finishes for a golfer who finished third at the Valspar last year, his one and only previous time playing this event.
If you prefer to focus on course history, there are two former winners among these top-10 favorites. Sam Burns, paying +2200, is the current defending champion. He shot a -17 last year, one off the Valspar Championship record, and won by three strokes.
Paul Casey, paying +1800, won back-to-back the two years prior to Burns. He’s also coming off a third-place finish at The PLAYERS, which pairs nicely with a T15 at The Genesis.
Longer Shots Worth a Look
If you’re looking to take a flier on a good value play, give Jason Kokrak a thought. He’s paying +4000 for a tournament win, and in his last three starts at the Valspar, he has finished eighth, second, and 13th. Prior to that run, he also had a seventh-place finish in 2015.
Adam Hadwin, at +6600, is paying even longer odds, and he’s an actual winner at the Valspar Championship. He held on to win by one stroke in 2017 after entering the final round with a four-stroke lead. He’s also coming off a T9 at Sawgrass.
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