It is time for Save Mart 350! It’s road racing for NASCAR this week in Sonoma, California, and that means only one thing – Chase Elliott is at the top of the odds board as the undisputed king of the road.
But, and this is a big but, Sonoma races more like Circuit of the Americas than any other track, and that race this year was won by underdog Ross Chastain.
So while we know Elliott will be in the mix, anything can happen on this change of pace course.
Favorites to Win Save Mart 350
- Chase Elliott (+450)
- Kyle Larson (+500)
- Martin Truex Jr. (+850)
- Ross Chastain (+1000)
- Kyle Busch (+1000)
- Ryan Blaney (+1400)
- A.J. Allmendinger (+1400)
- Austin Cindric (+1400)
- Joey Logano (+1600)
- Chase Briscoe (+1600)
- Denny Hamlin (+1600)
No surprise that Chase Elliott is at the top of the board. He has seven wins on road courses since 2016, and during a stretch that went from 2019 to 2021, he won six of eight races.
It is worth noting; however, that as dominant as Elliott is on the road courses, he hasn’t been that way in Sonoma. He did have a second-place finish a year ago at Save Mart 350, but that is his career-best.
In the race that saw Elliott finish in second place at Sonoma in 2021, the man who finished first was Kyle Larson – the Cup champion last year. That was his second top-10 finish at Sonoma and only his second. He doesn’t have a long history of success at Sonoma, but following the win here in 2021, Larson also won at Watkins Glen two months later, and then he won at Charlotte Roval in October.
Ross Chastain did have that surprise win at COTA in March, but he had another top-five finish at COTA in 2021. Plus, when racing at Sonoma that same year, he came in seventh. Although in his previous race at Sonoma in 2019, he finished 33rd.
Longer Odds to Consider
William Byron is paying +2200 to take the W at the Save Mart 350, which is a lot for a guy who currently ranks third in the overall standings and has two checkered flags on this season. His last couple of races have been rough – he hasn’t been in the top-10 since April – but overall, he has raced well this season, and he does have five career top-10 finishes on road courses.
A real longshot to consider is Michael McDowell, paying +10000. He had a pair of top-10 road course finishes in 2021, and in 15 starts this season, he has five top-five finishes.
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