Typically the winner of the PGA Championship isn’t a surprise. It’s generally someone playing very good golf leading into the tournament and someone who is highly ranked headed into the tournament. These are two of the reasons that what Phil Mickelson did at Kiawah Island in 2021 was so surprising. The +25000 longshot was T69 the week before his big triumph.
Even Collin Morikawa, who was only playing in his second-ever Major when he won in 2020, had a win at the Workday Charity Open just three weeks earlier.
This isn’t to say we should only focus on the favorites. Mickelson’s can happen. But the odds are good that Sunday’s eventual PGA Championship winner will be someone playing his best golf.
Favorites to win PGA Championship
- Jon Rahm (+1200)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1200)
- Justin Thomas (+1400)
- Rory McIlroy (+1400)
- Collin Morikawa (+1800)
- Jordan Spieth (+1800)
- Cameron Smith (+2200)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
- Dustin Johnson (+2500)
- Viktor Hovland (+2500)
- Xander Schauffele (+2500)
If you’re looking to wager on someone playing his top golf, Scottie Scheffler is as good a bet as there is in the field. He’s playing his best golf and the best golf of anyone on the planet. The Masters champion finished T8 at the PGA last year and a career-best T4 in 2020.
Jon Rahm recently lost his No. 1 ranking to Scheffler, but the reigning U.S. Open champion has yet to drop behind Scheffler on the odds board. His best-ever finish at the PGA was a T4 in 2018. He was T8 last year.
Among this top group, we also have former PGA Championship winners Justin Thomas (2017) and Rory McIlroy (2012 and 2014). As the defending PGA Championship champion last year, Morikawa finished T8.
Best Value Picks
Remove his Masters performances the last two years, and it’s easy to think of Brooks Koepka as one of the PGA Championship favorites here. He’s paying +4200 as a two-time PGA winner (2018 and 2019), and the two-time U.S. Open winner (2017 and 2018) was great at all of the Majors a year ago except for Augusta. He was T2 at the PGA, T4 at the U.S. Open and T6 at The Open Championship.
Corey Conners is also worth a look at +4500. His lone Tour win came at the Valero Texas Open in 2019, so he’s probably well off your radar. But last year, he finished T8 at the Masters, T17 at the PGA, and T15 at the Open Championship. He also just finished T6 at the Masters last month.
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