The NASCAR Cup Series takes a break from being the left turn circuit this week by heading to the road course in Austin, Texas. The Circuit of the Americas is the place, a 20-turn 3.46-mile Grand Prix course that will test the best the drivers have to offer.
Normally this would be the domain of Chase Elliott, with the rest of the Grand Prix field racing to keep up with him. But he is out with a leg injury he suffered while snowboarding, meaning that this road race is wide open.
Favorites to Win EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix
Kyle Larson (+650)
Ross Chastain (+800)
Kyle Busch (+800)
Tyler Reddick (+900)
William Byron (+1200)
A.J. Allmendinger (+1200)
Daniel Suarez (+1500)
Christopher Bell (+1500)
Austin Cindric (+1500)
Ryan Blaney (+1800)
Alex Bowman (+1800)
Just how good has Chase Elliott been on Grand Prix road courses? He has 14 top-5 finishes since 2019, which includes seven wins and three runner-ups. So while his excellence on the road course, and COTA specifically, will be missed, his absence will add competitiveness.
Kyle Larson is the favorite in Elliott’s place. He was a runner-up in 2021 at this course, and on road courses in general he has four overall wins – twice at Watkins Glen and once each at Sonoma and Charlotte Roval. Larson has yet to win this season, but he does have two top-five finishes.
Behind Larson are Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch at +800. Chastain won this race last year and was the fourth-place finisher in 2021. He also had a top-five finish at Road America last July. Busch hasn’t won on a road course since Sonoma in 2015, but he does have five top-five finishes since 2021.
Among the other favorites on the board, there have been top-five finishes at COTA for Tyler Reddick, A.J. Allmendinger, Christopher Bell, and Alex Bowman.
Best Value Bets
Chris Buescher is probably someone off your radar. He was 35th last week in Atlanta and 15th the week before in Phoenix. But in his final five road course races last year he finished second, sixth, 10th, ninth, and sixth. He’s paying +3000 to win and +425 to finish in the top-five.
Kimi Raikkonen is at +5000 to win here on Sunday, which is incredible value when you consider that he won on this course as an F1 driver and he’s racing this week for Trackhouse Racing, who won here last year.
This is only Raikkonen’s second start in NASCAR Grand Prix. But in his first start last year at Watkins Glen he was running in the top-10 when he got swept up in a wreck. He can win at this course, his team can win here, and he’s paying +650 to get a top-five finish.
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