The 2025 Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest returns to Coney Island on Thursday, July 4. The event begins around 12 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN2. Joey Chestnut is back in the spotlight after being banned last year. He’s the biggest name in competitive eating and holds the all-time contest record of 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes.
Chestnut has won 16 out of the last 17 contests. Patrick Bertoletti won the event last year with 58 hot dogs in Chestnut’s absence. Other top eaters include Geoffrey Esper, James Webb, and Nick Wehry. This year’s contest features a large field, but all eyes will be on Chestnut’s return. Check out WagerHome to run your own hot dog contest betting board or become a PPH bookie today.
Chestnut Preview – Back in the Contest and Still the Favorite
Joey Chestnut enters this year’s contest as a -2500 favorite. He set the official Nathan’s record by eating 76 hot dogs in 2021. Last year, he was banned from the contest for promoting a plant-based brand. But now he’s back and focused on reclaiming the mustard yellow belt.
Chestnut has also eaten 83 hot dogs in a one-on-one event with rival Takeru Kobayashi, but that result doesn’t count toward Nathan’s official record. Even though he is 41 years old, Chestnut still ranks well above every other competitor in speed and volume. He is expected to push toward the 70 hot dog mark again this year.
Books have set his over/under total at 71.5 hot dogs, with the over priced at -140. There’s also an adjusted total of 76.5 hot dogs, with the under listed as a heavy -350. Chestnut’s total tends to drop slightly in outdoor contests due to heat and wind, but he has gone over 70 hot dogs in six of the last eight events.
The Field Preview – Can Anyone Keep Up?
Patrick Bertoletti won the 2024 contest with 58 hot dogs and is second on the board at +1500 to win this year. His total is set at 50.5 hot dogs, and he will likely need to exceed that to beat Chestnut. Bertoletti had his best ever showing last year and is a solid option in bets that exclude Chestnut from the winner pool.
Geoffrey Esper is one of the most consistent eaters in the group. He ate 53 hot dogs last year and has finished in the top three several times. His odds sit at +2500, and he has been a runner-up to Chestnut more than once. Esper’s best total in the Nathan’s contest is 55, and he may need a personal best to stay in the top two again.
James Webb and Nick Wehry round out the main challengers. Webb ate 52 hot dogs last year and has an underdog price in head-to-head matchups. Wehry, who is married to women’s champion Miki Sudo, has been steady but has not hit 50 hot dogs in past contests. The field is large, but no one else is expected to seriously threaten Chestnut unless he underperforms.
Women’s Contest Preview – Miki Sudo Looks to Extend Her Reign
Miki Sudo is the overwhelming favorite on the women’s side. She has won 10 of the last 11 contests and set the women’s record in 2023 by eating 51 hot dogs. She is not widely available to bet on due to her dominance, but most sportsbooks list her with a large edge in head-to-head props.
Sudo’s over/under is set at 45.5 hot dogs. While she hit 51 last year, she didn’t break 42 in the two years before that. Bettors have been leaning toward the under, which is priced at -105. Sudo has a good chance to win again but may not break her record this time around.
Michelle Lesco could offer a challenge. She won in 2021 when Sudo sat out due to pregnancy. But her typical total is closer to 30-35 hot dogs. Lesco would need a career day and a slip from Sudo to pull off an upset.
PPH Betting Prediction
Joey Chestnut should win the contest, but betting him at -2500 has no value. The better options are prop bets, including the over/under for total hot dogs. We like Chestnut to finish just above his total, around 72, which would cash the over 71.5 at -140.
Another angle is Bertoletti in the “Winner Without Chestnut” market at +155. He’s coming off a personal-best performance and has confidence from winning in 2024. Expect Chestnut to win with a final of 72, followed by Bertoletti and Esper in the 50s. Run your own pool or contest betting using tools from WagerHome. Start your PPH journey now.
Pick: Joey Chestnut Over 71.5
