Welcome back to our NFL Week 16 betting picks! As we move into the final three weeks of the season, there are two things we’re focused on: Which teams have the most to play for and which teams are best equipped to survive positive COVID tests. Unfortunately, December of 2021 is looking a lot like the 2020 season, and rosters can take unexpected hits at any given moment.
So always check the latest COVID/reserve list before placing your NFL Week 16 betting picks.
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-7)
We expect that Baker Mayfield will be back for the Browns for Saturday’s game in Green Bay. But the Browns are now 7-7 and on playoff life support. The Packers, on the other hand, have control of home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, and Aaron Rodgers is playing some of the best football of his life.
The Packers have an extra day of rest, more to play for, and a quarterback looking like a back-to-back MVP. There won’t be a late-game meltdown to blow the point spread like last week at Baltimore. This week Green Bay wins by at least 10 points and covers the spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
The old narrative would read like this: Tom Brady is super angry about getting shut out on Sunday night, and like the Hulk, you don’t want to make Tom Brady angry.
That sentiment about Brady is real, but the injuries just suffered by the Bucs offense are also very real and far more relevant. The simple fact is when Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette are not in the lineup, this offense struggles. Remove Mike Evans, who we won’t know about until closer to kick-off, and points will be at a premium.
The Panthers have a good defense, and they will be able to slow an already slowed Tampa Bay offense enough to keep the final score to within 10 points. The Bucs will win but take the Panthers and the points.
Los Angeles Chargers (-9) at Houston Texans
Another team that’s angry heading into Week 16 is the Los Angeles Chargers, who are just a fourth-down conversion away from being in the first place. Instead, they are most likely going to finish no better than second place, leaving them in the jumbled mess of the AFC wild-card race.
Winning at Houston keeps the Chargers clear of the teams currently out of the playoffs, like Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and helps them keep pace with the Colts and Bills. Winning big at Houston will help soothe the soul after losing in overtime to the Chiefs, and that is what will happen.
Take the Chargers and give the points.
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